A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have piled up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
