A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
